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12 January 2009
Looking to the end of Israel
Israel will not be destroyed by the combined Arab armies and neither will it vanish as a result of attacks by the Palestinian militias in the West Bank and Gaza. Yet vanish is will, and probably before it reaches its hundredth anniversary in 2047.

There are three factors that will combine to end the western presence in Palestine. In order of importance they are demographics, sanctions and urban conflict with the native population.

Demographics are the most important by far. The iron law of demographics has it that if one tribe out breeds another, then it wins. The issue is not just the fact that the Palestinians can take far higher casualties than the westerners, it is that in spite of those horrendous casualties the locals are on target to outnumber the colonists within another generation. It is that knowledge that will fester in the minds of the westerners, and as the two populations reach parity, will ensure that more and more of them take the easy option of leaving the country.

Sanctions will help this process along. The ramifications of the current Gaza Conflict isn't going to end when the fighting stops. Those hundreds of thousands of people who marched in the west for an end to Israel's attacks on the the Gaza civilians can be expected to form the nucleus of a demand for sanctions against Israel. In the meantime boycott campaigns will take root and grow until such time as eating Jaffa oranges, say, becomes as socially unacceptable in middle class circles as drinking South African wine was a generation ago.

Finally, if you think that the Arab insurections are bad now, just wait and see what happens in the future, when sanctions are biting and the Arab population has overtaken the European. The issue here is not a major Arab insurrection, rather it is the drip, drip, drip of urban guerrilla actions that will slowly undermine the desire of the Europeans to continue living in Arabia. Waving one's son off as he takes his girlfriend for a pizza and then finding out that both of them have become toppings is guaranteed to cheese anyone off. However, couple it with the knowledge that the rest of the west doesn't give a shit and you have a recipe for major depression, followed by that packing of the bags time that we have seen in other failed European settlements.

How the final kick will be administered is impossible to say. The most logical outcome would be a major urban insurrection in Jerusalem which led to an exodus of Europeans from Palestine. However, what can be seen is that the Arabs are breeding the next generation of fighters, demands for sanctions are growing and urban guerrilla warfare has reached levels undreamed of just a few weeks ago.
3 Comments:

Dream on.

I'd place a sizeable bet with you, but for the sad fact that neither of us is likely to live to collect. But your grandchildren and mine will be celebrating or bemoaning the centenary on 14th May 2048.

The sanctions bit is pure wishful thinking. I haven't noticed that recent happenings have changed anybody's minds - it's only been the usual suspects emoting about Gaza. The impression I get is that it's urban middle class liberals who make all the noise, and that the working class are either indifferent or can at least see the Israelis' point. Rather than Europe deciding it doesn't give a shit for Israel's survival, it's much more likely that the next few botched spectaculars from Al-Qaeda (or whoever) will lead to no-one giving a shit what happens to Arabs.

"Europeans living in Arabia"? Hasn't your geography gone to pot, old chap? That bit has never been known as Arabia. Unless, of course, you have adopted the view that all the territory conquered by Big Mo and his successors is an Islamic Waqf for all eternity. (Astonishing how many Westerners buy this argument.) What that area is and always has been is a meeting point, peaceful and otherwise, between European and Asian cultures. And such it will remain. As for Israel, it's a damn sight better armed, united and supported than the Crusader kingdoms were.

12 January 2009 at 21:06  

Yeah, yeah, yeah... I put forward several good reasons why this particular western shithole isn't going to last and you come along and just waffle.

Simple, brutal truth is that creole states that do not exterminate the local population do not last.

This one isn't likely to see its 75th anniversary, never mind its hundredth.

13 January 2009 at 02:28  

Can't entirely rebut the allegations of "waffle" - we both learned to do that at our Alma Mater - but it was all aimed at refuting your "several good reasons".

I'll put my money where my mouth is on the 75th, though, as I hope we'll both make that. £100, payable on 14th May 2023?

13 January 2009 at 19:23  

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