12 January 2009
Looking to the end of Israel
Israel will not be destroyed by the combined Arab armies and neither will it vanish as a result of attacks by the Palestinian militias in the West Bank and Gaza. Yet vanish is will, and probably before it reaches its hundredth anniversary in 2047.
There are three factors that will combine to end the western presence in Palestine. In order of importance they are demographics, sanctions and urban conflict with the native population.
Demographics are the most important by far. The iron law of demographics has it that if one tribe out breeds another, then it wins. The issue is not just the fact that the Palestinians can take far higher casualties than the westerners, it is that in spite of those horrendous casualties the locals are on target to outnumber the colonists within another generation. It is that knowledge that will fester in the minds of the westerners, and as the two populations reach parity, will ensure that more and more of them take the easy option of leaving the country.
Sanctions will help this process along. The ramifications of the current Gaza Conflict isn't going to end when the fighting stops. Those hundreds of thousands of people who marched in the west for an end to Israel's attacks on the the Gaza civilians can be expected to form the nucleus of a demand for sanctions against Israel. In the meantime boycott campaigns will take root and grow until such time as eating Jaffa oranges, say, becomes as socially unacceptable in middle class circles as drinking South African wine was a generation ago.
Finally, if you think that the Arab insurections are bad now, just wait and see what happens in the future, when sanctions are biting and the Arab population has overtaken the European. The issue here is not a major Arab insurrection, rather it is the drip, drip, drip of urban guerrilla actions that will slowly undermine the desire of the Europeans to continue living in Arabia. Waving one's son off as he takes his girlfriend for a pizza and then finding out that both of them have become toppings is guaranteed to cheese anyone off. However, couple it with the knowledge that the rest of the west doesn't give a shit and you have a recipe for major depression, followed by that packing of the bags time that we have seen in other failed European settlements.
How the final kick will be administered is impossible to say. The most logical outcome would be a major urban insurrection in Jerusalem which led to an exodus of Europeans from Palestine. However, what can be seen is that the Arabs are breeding the next generation of fighters, demands for sanctions are growing and urban guerrilla warfare has reached levels undreamed of just a few weeks ago.