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04 October 2008
Looking ahead to the last month of campaigning
Until the end of August the polls had Barack Obama on a steady path to the White House. Then John McCain picked Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential candidate and we spent three weeks watching as the Republican machine got into gear and Obama looked to be wrongfooted all the way. However, when the credit crisis hit just over a week ago things began to change again, and now Obama is sitting atop a rather nice five percent lead in the polls. Say what you like, but this election is anything but boringly predictable.

Can Obama keep ahead of McCain as they head into the final straight? That depends on two factors, neither of which are really in his hands. The first is public reaction to the $700 billion financial bailout which the House of Representatives finally passed yesterday. If it is enough to stabalise the situation until after the election, then we can expect that the social issues that dominated for most of last month will come to the fore once again. If that happens then McCain has the advantage because Obama doesn't have any wriggle room over such matters as abortion, since support for them are written into the manifesto.

The second factor concerns those Democrat supporters who just love going off-message and writing their own campaign scripts. It happened with the Sarah Palin baby lunacy, then it continued with the attempt to smear her with the "Sambo beat the bitch" silliness. The Republicans don't go in for counter-productive games like that. Their supporters wait for the line to come out and then everyone uses that theme to hit their opponents with. Seeing the GOP in action is a bit like watching the old Communist Party spread the word: everyone says the same thing because everyone has the same script. Looking ahead, all it would take would be for another over enthusiastic Democrat to come up with a cracked idea and the GOP will bounce back with its rebutal.

There is still everything to play for, so stick around for the final four weeks of the campaign.

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3 Comments:

But Mr Exile you seem to have forgotten the October surprise. Republicans are weak on the economy so that is now out of the way,and foreign affairs, where the Republicans are perceived to be strong, will dominate the final phase. Maybe a third party intervention in the middle East is the next step of this orchestrated theft of the word democracy.
But I agree, we are witnessing fascinating times as long as the best man wins.

4 October 2008 at 13:59  

We're going to have fun alright.

Either in the nuclear financial option and the collapse of the dollar, or the nuclear nuclear option.

Israel is itching to go nuclear over Iran, and to be honest, that's going to be one major punch up when it starts, and I say "when, not if".

Israel will expect the US to "cough up" for the cost of warfare, and the tax payers, will just what? There's no legitimate way to raise any more money from US taxpayers.

The election is boring, it's what happens after that's electrifying.

I predict Nukes at dawn, and US taxpayers burdened with the cost. So basically, I'm odds on for us getting both nuclear options at once. Nothing like having your cake and eating it.

4 October 2008 at 21:53  

I will blog about the October Surprise on Monday, but it does rely on the Chimp doing something, so whether it happens or not is debatable. He looks out of it if you ask me.

4 October 2008 at 22:38  

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