09 July 2008
How you can tell that the war against Iraq isn't over yet
As I write, various wankbloggers and other assorted tosspots are proclaiming that the surge is working, victory is just around the corner and light can be seen at the end of the tunnel as far as the war against Iraq is concerned. The good thing about this collective wad shoot is that it means that the war will go on and a lot more occupiers will go home in boxes, but that means that the war against Iraq is far from over.
How do I know? That's easy - the guerrilla standard hasn't been raised over Baghdad yet and the collaborators are not dangling from lamp posts.
Look, the "strategic" victories that the warmongers are wanking over only exist in their little minds. There are no strategic victories in a war like this because the Iraqi team aren't fighting to hold territory. Their aim is to keep the war going until the foreign team gets sick of it all and goes home.
The various home players are changing their strategies and that accounts for the relative lull in the fighting. That said, the Iraqis still managed to cull 29 Americans last month, and God knows how many collaborators. Sadr is turning his militia into a cell-structured guerrilla force, very similar to the one that drove the French out of Algeria. That force may be getting advice from Hezbollah up in Lebanon because some of the attacks that they have recently mounted show all the hallmarks of professional training.
The point is that with a well-trained cadre of guerrillas fighters - say a couple of thousand or so - the Sadr boys can keep the war going pretty much forever. When the Americans do call it a day, then the militia can be reactivated to fight the civil war for control of the country, but for the moment, why bust a gut?
Like I said, this is not about territory, this is all about keeping the war going. If the Iraqis can do that then eventually they will win.