20 February 2008
Serbian response to Kosovo beomes clearer
Good news out of Serbia - the Serbs have burned two Kosovo border posts and followed this up by sending up to 1,000 police into the breakaway province's border area. The reaction from the western powers who have troops in Kosovo has been one of surprise that the Serbs could do such a thing.
If the Serbs get away with this then they will probably be able to grab the chunk of Kosovo that runs up to the River Ibar. If the western troops are sent in to clear them out, then the Serbs will probably vanish back across the border to wait for another opportunity.
The only thing that is clear at the moment is that Serbia has decided to play a long game of cat and mouse with the west to force them to keep large number of troops deployed in Kosovo for years to come.
I am not a gambling man, but if I was, I would bet that the west will lose interest in this game before the Serbs.