18 February 2008
Kosovo: what may the future hold?
As Kosovo declared its independence yesterday, reaction from Serbia and Russia has been muted. It looks as if Serbia has embarked upon a long game, one that will drag on for decades. The Serbs are ideally suited to that strategy having survived all the other empires that have crossed their territory over the previous few millennia.
In the short and medium terms, as the above video makes clear, their aim is to deny Kosovo any legitimacy whatsoever and continue to govern the two areas of the breakaway province that have large Serb majorities. If the Albanian drug dealers want to try and take those regions, then the onus of starting any conflict will clearly be on their shoulders.
That said, and assuming that war doesn't break out immediately, two things are rather clear:
The first is that the Albanians will probably ethnically cleanse those parts of Kosovo that they fully control of their Serb and Gypsy populations whilst Serbia will remain a multi-ethnic polity. What this means is that we will get to say "we told you so" to the various types that are supporting this clear breach of international convention.
The second factor is that no matter how Washington and Brussels tries to spin this away as a special case, a precedent has been set. Secessionist groups, based on language or ethnicity, have suddenly been given a rather large boost. The USA has a large Hispanic population in its South and West. The dream of a New Aztlan is little more than an internet fantasy at the moment, but it could become real with a bit of outside help. Russia, once her economy fully recovers from the catastrophe that was the collapse of the USSR, may just decide that a bit of limited help might be in her interests.
Of course this ignores all the other secessionist groups that the rest of the world is already having to handle. The idea that they are not going to be emboldened by yesterday's events is too ludicrous for words.
Capitalism needs tranquillity for its future growth, but what it has got is a recipe for international chaos. We as socialists need to remember that out of chaos comes opportunity, and we need to be ready to take advantage of whatever opportunity arises as Kosovo's drug-dealers and whores start to kill off the Serb population.
All of this is rather tough on the Serbs, who did not ask to stand in the front line against globalised capitalism. Neither for that matter did the Iraqis, but they seem to have risen manfully to the challenge. We can expect no less from the nation that told both Austria-Hungary and then Germany to go and take a flying fuck last century.
Бог защищает Сербию
God Defend Serbia