04 January 2008
Still sleepwalking towards war in Kosovo?
The looming crisis that began when the west waged its war against Yugoslavia in 1999 will probably come to a head next month if, as expected, Kosovo declares its independence. The immediate problem seems to be one of wishful thinking. Either hoping that if we don't talk about Kosovo then it will all go away, or the belief that the Serbs will see reason and just accept the dismemberment of their country.
Let's suppose that the problem doesn't go away and that the Serbs refuse to acquiesce in the west's desires - what then?
We could be within a month or so of war in Europe. That is the bottom line: and nobody is talking about it.
Unlike 1999, this time around Washington, London and Berlin will not have things all their own way. Quite a few ostensible allies may decide to sit this one out, which means that if only Serbia can get a clear, public message of support from Russia, then the aggressors may back down.
Never has Russia been more important than she is today.