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10 December 2007
Three options for Serbia
It now looks certain that the Albanians in Kosovo will declare the territory independent before the end of January. When that happens the Serbs basically have three options. They will cave in and accept their defeat. They will go to war to uphold their country's integrity, or they will cut a deal with Albania that will surprise us all.

Nothing in Serbia's history suggests that they will suddenly bow down to outside pressure. It just doesn't seem to be in their nature. Kosovo is at the heart of their nationality, and I just don't see any way that the Serbian government could back down even if it wanted to.

I realise that by saying that I am in a minority. Most British commentators are taking the line that the Serbs will be reasonable, especially since all those EU subsidies are at state. What these commentators don't realise is that ideology tends to trump economic self-interest.

The second option is war. The west has broken the armistice agreement of 1999 which stated quite clearly that Kosovo is a part of Serbia. Russia helped negotiate that agreement, and it is to be hoped that she will back Serbia and thus prevent war. If she doesn't, then it looks likely that Serbia will go it alone, and hopefully the site of NATO bombers reducing Serbian cities to rubble will force her to act.

However, there is a third option. It is one that both the Serbia and the Albanians were discussing in 1999 and one which the west refused to accept. Kosovo could be divided between the two. Albania would get the lion's share, but Serbia would be willing to accept that so long as she kept the Serbian parts of the territory.

Why did the west refuse to accept this deal? Largely because it meant accepting that the Serbs and the Albanians don't want to live together. It ran up against their post-modernist view that we are all consumers together.

Hopefully saner heads will prevail because it looks as if a division of the territory is the only realistic way forward.
9 Comments:

Yup. Solidly agree. Let the bit that Serbs live in be Serbian and the bit that Albanians live in be Albanian. Makes solid sense. And let's drop all this cack about territory being in some mystic sense the rightful property of some vague national entity or other. I lives for 9 years in China and heard this bollocks all the time about bits of territory inhabited by people who don't want to see the Chinese army ever again.

10 December 2007 at 05:56  

Cip! You just said you want to do away with "nation-states" (as if you can!) - are you now saying that instead of one multi-ethnic state such as Serbia, you want to have 5 or 10 monoethnic/mono-religious statelets?!

Do start with London, please: give the part where Asians live to the Asians, the predominantly Muslim parts to the Muslims, and keep only the few blocks where where the purebred Brits live as "Britain".

Do lead by example, you ignorant racist bully!

10 December 2007 at 06:08  

I don't really care much about China or Chinamen. The issue which you seem unable to grasp is that before we can even think about taking revenge for the past 30 years of shit one thing needs to happen:

The political system back home needs to be discredited so that people will be open to new ideas.

Just doing my bit to help the process along...

10 December 2007 at 06:25  

Actually I don't have either the wish or the power to give any bits of London to anybody; the whole of London belongs to the super-rich, many of whom belong to your friends the Russian mafia, anyway. And I live a long way from there, because I can't stand the place.

I quite like living here because on the whole people can do what the hell they like, without thinking they're part of some nationalist monolith (except when watching football, of course).

"Ignorant racist bully"? Well, I'm not in a position to bully anyone, even if I wanted to. Which I don't. And I'm not a racist either; if you are, as it appears, a Slavic Serb, you're basically the same race as I am, and even if you weren't that wouldn't matter. I do believe in differences between national cultures, however. And of course I'm ignorant: there's loads of things I don't know, and part of the reason I frequent blogs with which I don't agree is because I might learn something. But I have studied history, along with Ken: so I do know a little bit. Just not very fond of nationalism, because that's where two world wars came from.

10 December 2007 at 06:30  

"Your friends the Russian mafia"?! Are you demented? You're so insulting and malicious, it's really hard to even imagine such a shithead exists anywhere in the so-called civilized world.

Russians are my friends and brothers: by blood, by faith and by shared history and shared suffering.

The fact that the only attribute you can think of whenever you mention Russians is "mafia" speaks loads about you and nothing about Russians. Along with piles of your insults addressed to the entire Serbian nation, it shows what an appalling, despicable racist pig and a bully you are.

You know shit! And hatred.

10 December 2007 at 06:58  

Hmm. That's called Balkanization, isn't it? How apt. (And since when did anyone actually expect the Serbs to be reasonable?)

10 December 2007 at 08:37  

I think that the Serbs are being very reasonable, actually. Given that they suffered a war of aggression, their tolerance has been amazing.

Think about how the Iraqis behaved, and then consider what the Serbs could have done to destabilise Bosnia.

10 December 2007 at 08:46  

The Serbs did their more than their fair share of destabilization in Bosnia between 1992 and 1995, I think. But I agree with you - they are being amazingly reasonable (for them, anyway) about the fact that there's an international conspiracy to take Kosovo away from them and give it to a different bunch of hoods. (Sorry, but as far as I can see there are no good guys in Kosovo.)

10 December 2007 at 09:01  

sadgf

11 December 2007 at 00:48  

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