27 October 2007
The future of third world resistance
Francis Fukuyama has an interesting analysis of America's failure to coerce the Iraqis into submission. He argues that:
At least part of the problem is that it is dealing with complex social forces that are not organised into centralised hierarchies that can enforce rules, and thus be deterred, coerced, or otherwise manipulated through conventional power.
Translated into simple English, the Iraqis have no central authority that can betray them and each group fights under its own leader.
This is something that I have been arguing since at least 2004:
What all this seems to show is that those who are waiting for a Ho Chi Minh or Fidel Castro Ruz to emerge and lead the people to independence are probably going to be disappointed. There is no national leadership behind the Iraqi insurrection. The guerrillas are locally based and what leadership there is only operates at regional or tribal level.
This is the future and this is how the third world will defeat the first, whenever the latter is foolish enough to invade. The south of the planet cannot take on the north with high technology, so the north is basically invited in - and then the door is slammed shut.
Weak third world states will collapse like a house of cards, and then the families, clans and tribes will take over and that is when the fun begins.
The internet means that methods used by one resistance centre can be studied by others. Ideas can be swapped and tactics improved. You don't have to wait until something has been proven, if the idea looks promising you use it and improve on it yourself. Others copy your example. It is called open source warfare and it works very well indeed.
This is the future. Local resistance, drawing on age-old human links, and turning the west's inventions, such as the internet, against its inventors.