25 October 2007
America's options in Kurdistan
The longer a war continues the more chance there is that it will spread and suck in other countries. What started as a European war in 1939 had spread two years later to involve just about every major country on the planet.
The war that the Americans have waged against Iraq since 2003 has now reached the stage where other countries are starting to get dragged in.
The Turks are a case in point. As we pointed out last night, the Americans are now so desperate to keep Turkey out of the war that they are close to attacking the Kurds themselves. Now the Kurds are America's allies in this war, but that doesn't matter. What matters is keeping Turkey out of the war, so if that means that Washington has to betray those allies, then so be it. Realpolitik dictates that Turkey is a far more important ally, so the Kurds are on the cusp of being dumped.
Quite what the effect will be on America's other allies when they see one of their number getting chopped in such a cynical way is anyone's guess, but that is not the point. The point is that the Americans don't have that many choices left.
If the Turks carry out their threat and attack themselves, that will drive the Kurds into the arms of the anti-occupation resistance, because the USA will not fight Turkey. If the Americans hit the Kurds on Turkey's behalf, then Washington will have to gamble that they can control their puppets in Baghdad and keep them quiet, probably with yet more billions of fast devaluing dollars. However the Kurds will still join the resistance.
America is fucked either way. That's what happens when you start a war. You can never predict the outcome.