14 September 2007
Surge fails: what next for Iraq?
The Chimp has been forced to go on American television and admit that his surge has failed. Troop numbers will be reduced to their pre-surge levels by next year. All the spin in the world cannot hide the fact that the Iraqis have outlasted the Americans, and it is the fact that the occupation army can no longer take the strain that has forced this move. As soon as the numbers go down, the guerrillas will emerge from hiding and start the battle all over again.
At the moment most of the fighting seems to be Shia instigated, as a lot of Sunni guerrillas are taking a break from the conflict, and many tribally based resistance groups are accepting American dollars to fight al-Qaida. That is good as there is nothing to say that you can't be a nationalist and not make a buttie at the same time. Once al-Qaida have been dealt with they can be expected to return to the fray.
Unless that is the Americans offer them a deal that would see a Sunni strongman take over the national government. However if that happened then every excuse that the warmongers have put forward for war would be down the pan. The collection of warlords who make up the government, and whose militias battle for control on the streets, hardly have the makings of a capitalist, middle class, post-modern polity, but the warmongers can at least pretend that they do.
If Saddam Hussein Mark Two takes over how will they feel about that?