28 June 2006
The Exile & his belly
Alas or hooray, depending upon your point of view, the Exile is going to have to go into hospital yet again to have yet another operation - the third in three years. The most likely date is this coming Saturday, which means that this blog is going to have to suspend operations for about a week afterwards.
A post will be made on Friday that gives some more information.
27 June 2006
Americans try ink-spot strategy in Iraq
As has been mentioned in earlier postings, one of the delights of being middle-aged is that we can watch imperialism make the same mistakes today as it made a generation ago. The latest one is a varient of the ink-spot strategy. It basically involves sending troops into a region - or in this case into a city - and taking it over bit by bit. Once this has been done the area is held, pending the arrival of the reconstruction efforts. The idea is to buy off the local population and win them over to the imperialist cause. As areas are won over, they are expanded until the whole country has been covered and pacified.
The problem for the Americans is that their puppets are worse than useless. For ink-spot to work, locally recruited puppet troops are needed to hold down each area after the main colonial forces has wrested it from the guerrillas. The problem that the Americans have is that the Iraqi puppets are not willing to do this. During one operation in Ramadi, only 145 Iraqis turned up out of a full complement of 650. Unless an area can be held, the guerrillas will simply return once the foreign troops have moved on.
The second problem that the Americans have is that this strategy should have been tried three years ago. Now it is just too late: the Americans have tortured, killed and generally humiliated so many Iraqis that the country just wants its revenge.
For those of us who define ourselves as either non-interventionists or anti-imperialists, the fact that the Americans are now copying the same tactics that failed 30 years ago is a relief. It means that they have not thought up anything new and, like the old European colonialists, the only thing that they have to look forward to is defeat and disgrace.
26 June 2006
More problems for the British in Iraq
Since a spate of bomb attacks against them last autumn, British forces have largely kept out of the centre of Basra. Much of the police force in the south has been taken over by Shia militias who often clash with one another as well as intimidating ordinary people and attacking what is left of the Sunni community in the south.
Aside from this, the Iraqis seem to have developed a powerful and accurate anti-vehicle mine that can destroy the British army's Land Rovers. It can also seriously damage tanks, but its effect on the Land Rovers that the British are shipping into Iraq from Northern Ireland is terrifying.
The British have about 8,000 troops in Southern Iraq. It must be debatable how long they could stand against a determined push by the Iraqi forces.
25 June 2006
More evidence that the Americans want to cut & run
|It was only a couple of days ago that the Exile commented that maybe the Americans would get their Iraqi stooges to ask them to leave. Now more evidence is emerging that this is just what is likely to happen.|
A plan has been forward, ostensibly from the Iraqis, and the Americans have been careful to criticise it to the press. It calls for a timetable for the American withdrawal and the recognition of the nationalist resistence.
Quite what happens next is anyone's guess. The Americans could offer central Iraq to the nationalists in the same way that the south has pretty much been given up to the Shia militias by the British. The wheeze would presumambly be that all sides agree to hold off until after the Chimp has left office: then they can start settling old scores between themselves.
24 June 2006
American expert ponder colonial atrocities
American "experts" are stunned, shocked and horrified to learn of the atrocities committed by the occupation forces in Iraq. So stunned are they that they cannot decide why their nice, sweet boys are bahaving in this way. Could it be combat strees syndrome or is it due to the fact that senior officers are turning a blind eye to some bad apples?
Read the fucking Exile, folks, and ponder the mystery no more. Imperialism is getting well and truly shagged and has replied in the only way it knows: by mounting terror campaigns.
23 June 2006
Mark Oaten wants it to be known that his transactions with rent boys did not include the use of a glass table. In the interests of non-glass transparency could he also rule out the use of a trombone?
The Exile loathes cute comments like this and set to work to find out what was going on. London sources report that Mark just loves getting on his back below a clear glass table and watching the shit plop out.
Then he would bend over the table and start munching, while the rent boy kneeled behind him and gave him a nice reach around wank - hence the trombone reference.
Why can't Guido just tell things like they are and drop all the shit?
22 June 2006
Withdrawal option for Iraq
A former American Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, has claimed that the Iraqi "government" may soon ask the Anglo-Americans to leave. At first glance this seems unlikely since the stooges would quickly find themselves facing the popular wrath, so what could be going on?
It may be that Armitage is just tossing ideas around, but a more likely explanation is that he is flying a kite for a face-saving end to the war. Basically, the stooges would be told to ask for an end to the occupation. They might be offered guarantees that air power will be used to keep them in power, with the option of a safe home in the USA if that doesn't work. We could think of this as the South Vietnam option: let the leaders fly out to safety and leave the rest to their fates.
If that is the plan then one wonders when it will be implemented. The Americans have their Congressional elections in November and Iraq is dragging the Chimps' men down to defeat. Could it be put into practise quickly? Could the Americans be planning to cut and run before November of this year?
21 June 2006
Colonial wars and how to understand them: the case of Afghanistan
The Exile is old enough to remember the colonial wars of the 1960s and 1970s. Especially the pattern of optimistic statements followed by the more downbeat, guarded versions that get slipped out quietly in the hope that no bugger notices.
Afghanistan today follows a similar pattern. First we are all invited to cheer as the Anglo-Americans charge forward, using attack helicopters to kill lots of people. These corpses are presented as insurgent dead, but are usually anybody who had the misfortune to be in the wrong place. Anyway, if past wars are anything to go by, all these attacks do is allow the guerrillas to recruit new fighters, but that is not going to be obvious to people who don't remember the sad history of twentieth century colonialism's defeats.
Then we get the kicker: the statements which say that the Taliban are actually tougher than previously thought. The colonialists are still going to win, of course, but the enemy are putting up a fierce resistence.
And so it goes on, and on, and on. Until at some point in the future even the most gullible warmonger can no longer swallow any more of this idiocy. Then the troops leave, the collaborators get strung up from trees, and life in that third world, third rate shithole goes back to what it was before the occupation began.
20 June 2006
A rum tale
The Exile loves a good black propaganda operation. They are so easy to do: just come up with a story and feed it to a friendly news outlet. Then sit back and wait for the reaction.
Take this tale as an example. Venezuela is reported to be building a factory to produce AK assult rifles. These they will then export to Cuba and Bolivia.
Why will the country build a factory now when they have just started to import 100,000 rifles from Russia? Why does Cuba need to import rifles when she already has an arms industry of her own? Why is this tale running in the South Florida Sun-Sentinal? Well, that last one is easy; it's because South Florida is where life's little Cuban losers hang out after getting stuffed by the Cuban Revolution.
As for the first two questions, just asking them makes the reader wonder if the people who produce this nonsense think that we are all the type of idiot who believed that Iraq could hit the UK at 45 minutes notice?
19 June 2006
World Cup Finals affect blog's readership
|Here's a rum do. . . This blog has seen its readership drop by about three quarters since the World Cup Finals began. We used to average about 100 hits a day, and now The Exile gets about 25.|
It will be interesting - to say the least - to see if things pick up again after the final whistle has blown.
18 June 2006
Iraqis may have captured two American soldiers.
Hardly a week has gone by and Iraq has resumed its downward sprial out of imperialism's control. Last week the hand shandyists were hugging themselves with glee over the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and telling themselves that a tipping point had been reached.
Now, not only has the cull reached 2,500 Americans, but the imperialists seem to have lost two soldiers who may have been taken prisoner by the Iraqis.
It is quite possible that they are dead, of course, but the agitprop value of two Americans, dressed in natty orange jumpsuits telling the video camera how much they hated fighting in this war is too good to miss.
Let's hope that the Iraqis don't pass up the opportunity.
16 June 2006
2,500 Americans have now been killed in Iraq
The Americans have now lost 2,500 men in their war against Iraq. It was supposed to be a cakewalk, a stepping stone on the road to complete domination of the region; but it failed at the first hurdle.
The war goes on, but with each day that passes the Iraqis get stronger. The imperialists flail away at the mist and succeed only in killing yet more civilians.
Final victory is not yet close at hand; not unless the Iraqis put aside their differences and mount an all-out attack on the occupiers. However, even if the war continues at its present rate, sooner or later the American will no longer be able to spend treasure and blood and a withdrawal will be ordered.
15 June 2006
When will America retreat from Iraq?
Two years ago William H. Lind predicted that the Americans would have to make a fighting retreat out of Iraq. Today, as the American army starts to fall apart, the question is not if Lind was correct, but when will his prediction be realised?
Let's hope that it is after the World Cup is over. Otherwise match coverage from Germany may be interrupted.
Chimp visits Iraq: aides shit their loads
14 June 2006
British government considers giving an amnesty to 500,000 illegals.
This is insanity: the British government is reported to be considering an amnesty for the over 500,000 illegal immigrants who are currently in the country.
Let's be clear about this, the only reason why so many migrants are in the UK, especially in Southern England, is that the powers that be want to keep the wages down. Large-scale immigration is about cutting the wage bill and nothing else.
It is also about bypassing the trades' unions because most if not all illegal workers do not belong to unions. This is the way that the neo-liberals who have run the UK since 1979 want it: a hire and fire, low-wage economy, with the native working class kept firmly in its place. Wage inflation is kept under control by having a plethora of foreigners who do the manual work, especially in the south. It is not that British workers will not do those jobs, it is that they are not prepared to do them for the lousy wages that are on offer.
What is the solution? Repeal all the anti working class legislation that has now been on the statute books for almost a generation. Go back to the closed shop system of no union card, no job. Even in the firms that negotiate a post entry closed shop, the system would police itself as the unions would ensure that illegal migrants did not get a union card.
If this were coupled with heavy fines on employers who hired non-union labour, then Britain would see a rapid exodus of the type of people who sat on their arses and let socialism die in Eastern Europe.
13 June 2006
Guantanamo suicides: British tosser fails to get with the new line
I wondered how long it would take before the lad, Eric, roared back with another load of old wank to provide us with yet more amusement. Yesterday he did us proud. . .
Three prisoners at the American's concentration camp on Guantanamo Bay recently committed suicide, a move that the Americans quickly dubbed "a PR stunt".
In came Eric to add his voice in support of this line. The problem is that the line has now changed and the State Department has distanced itself from the earlier comments. Someone should tell the lad to get with the new programme. The problem with being an arselicking scab is that nobody thinks that they are important enough to update them with the latest news. A bit like when Tony Blair found out that the war against Iraq had actually begun via the BBC, one supposes.
12 June 2006
World Cup Fever
The eldest son came home from his primary school on Friday and commented on the opening game of the World Cup. It turned out that the school had realised that the only way they were going to get anyone behind a desk that day was to let them watch the match.
Such is life in Mexico. The country is so football mad that cantinas and restaurants have installed large screen TVs otherwise they would be empty. The strategy is helped by the fact that local TV is only broadcasting live a few of the matches - those involving Mexico. Sky has snapped up the rights to broadcast all the games and since most Mexicans cannot afford the subscription they are flooding into bars and eating houses to watch the games. The country has pretty much shut up shop until it is all over.
09 June 2006
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is dead: hand shandyists wank like mad.
It is good to see that the Hand Shandyists For War are back to giving themselves some more frantic wrist actions: laughs like this are few and far between and have been for most of this year. The latest bit of wankery concerns the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian born leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq.
It looks as if he was grassed up by the Iraqi nationalists, after having served his purposes for them. This will not stop the Americans - and their stooges linked to above - from claiming this as some kind of historic turning point in the war.
However, as Justin Raimundo points out, the Americans could probably have had al-Zarqawi a couple of years ago, had they been willing to cut a deal with Iran. They didn't because the Americans needed him as a convenient myth; a myth which stated that he and the other foreign fighters were the be all and end all of the resistence.
Now that the Iraqis no longer need him, and now that the Americans are gagging for anything that can be spun as good news, the two sides seem to have come together to remove this bothersome irritant.
Our wanking friends will not doubt continue to spurt all over their monitors at the news, but back in the real world, the war will go on, the chaos will mount and the Americans will continue to die.
The rest is just a load of old tosh thrown out to give the stooges something to wank over.
08 June 2006
American militias are losing on all fronts
The American death squad strategy seems to be failing on all fronts. The strategy first came to public notice in January of this year, thanks to a Newsweek article. As has been noted on this blog, the use of proxies and death squads is usually a sign that the conventional force has run out of steam and cannot suppress the insurgency.
As Lenin's Tomb pointed out yesterday, the proxy unit that the Americans have set up is called the Special Police Commandos, and seems to have been responsible for many of the massacres that are going on in Iraq.
The Americans are also using it in Somalia, and there the policy seems to have failed already as the American backed militias have been kicked out of Mogadishu.
This strategy usually fails, largely because it creates enemies faster than the death squads can kill them. Besides, the negative publicity that a mountain of corpses creates, only helps to further the anti-war cause at home.
That said, it is always a heartening sign when the proxies are thrown into battle because it means that the colonialists have pretty much run out of options.
07 June 2006
The British are slowly becoming anti-American
This report must have been rather galling for The Times to print, given the pro-Atlantacist stance that the scab sheet has. However, a new opinion survey shows that two-thirds of British voters now believe that the country's future lies with closer links to Europe, and less than half believe that the USA is a force for good in the world.
Clearly this is not the end of the alliance between the UK and the USA, but it may be the beginning of the end.
06 June 2006
Afghan police defect to the Taliban & Americans admit that they have problems.
Five Afghan policemen shot dead seven of their fellow officers and than scampered off to join the Taliban.
This is the first time that something like this has happened, and suggests that the guerrillas are far closer to victory than anyone has given them credit for. Defections from the government's forces tend to come at the point when people start realising that the government that pays their wages is not going to win the war. Since few people enjoy being strung up from trees, they tend to start switching sides.
At the same time the Americans have admitted that Afghanistan faces a "difficult" summer and autumn, with the Taliban posing a "tactical threat," according to one senior American general. Translated into English that probably means that a military stalemate has arrived. On a strategic level a stalemate points to an insurgent victory. If they cannot be defeated, then they can usually outlast the conventional forces. Sooner or later the foreigners will go home. . .
05 June 2006
Mothers of servicemen organise to oppose the war.
The wives and mothers of serving British soldiers have formed a new pressure group to demand that Britain end her involvement in the war against Iraq.
The national campaign will be launched later this week, but in a statement issued to the Independent on Sunday, the group claim that the war was "based on lies," and demand withdrawal "as a matter of urgency".
The British government will not listen, of course, but it is going to be difficult for them to smear this group as unpatriotic. As one grandmother said: "I was in the Army myself, as was my husband, in the 1950s. We were defending Britain and our territories. They should be defending places like the Falklands - that's a different matter."
You cannot get more patriotic than that.
04 June 2006
Warmongers justify the Iraqi massacres
|The warmongers are mounting a counter-attack over the recent massacres in Iraq:|
Our press and the anti-American left both in this country and outside of it has been reporting "Hadithas" over and over again over the last three years.
Time and time again our friends have accused us of every possible atrocity that there is to the point that internationally people are already able to believe this or the 9/11 stuff or all the rest.
Because of this, internationally it is totally irrelevant if the Marines actually violated the rules of war. Our foes are going to say that we've done things if we do them or not, so the only people that it really matters to will be; the people killed (and family) and the people in our own country who support the military.
The real danger is that we who support the war will reach the point that we say "we might as well be taken as wolves then as sheep". At that point the left can celebrate that they have made our military and those who support it the people they claim we are. Once that happens however any compunction about respecting them will be gone, and remember one side is armed and one is not.
That is a fate that I don't wish on any of us.Got that people? Here is a summary:
1. The left has blackened imperialism's good name.
2. Thus it does not matter if a war crime is committed or not because we have persuaded folk to believe that everything is a crime.
3. Thus the poor imperialists are forced to go off and waste a few towelheads.
Does that make sense to you? It looks a bit bloody rum to this writer. As was argued in the post below this one, massacres are a basic component of guerrilla war, and usually come about because the conventional side has lost the war.
The good bit comes at the end: the rednecks are armed and the left is not. Is that a threat of Civil War to the American left? The Exile certainly hopes so because if the Americans are busy killing each other then they are not killing any bugger else.
As one American anti-war blogger sarcastically puts it, to take this line means that: "On the day when Ann Coulter and Pat Robertson finally send the death squads to kill you and me and our families and everyone we know, whose fault will it be? Well, that's obvious: it will be our fault."
Cheers: Antiwar.com Blog
03 June 2006
Penultimate period in Iraq.
The American war against Iraq may have entered its penultimate stage. First we had the actual invasion, a period which ended in May 2003 when the Chimp challenged the Iraqis to "Bring 'em on". They took him at his word and stage two kicked off almost immediately: a guerrilla war that took everyone by surprise with it speed and ferocity.
We are now at stage three, which is the massacre period. The occupation forces are sick and tired of the sights and smells of Iraq, and want to terrorise the population into a mindless submission. The events at Haditha, Ishaqi and Abu Sifa are of a different order to the casual brutality of earlier days. These massacres seem to show that the army has been given license to terrorise. Well trained, well equipped troops do not do things like this unless someone tells them that it is acceptable. In other words, these massacres are the result of a green light that can only have come from Washington.
Over the course of the next few weeks and months, we can expect to see more and more of these atrocities as American troops and locally recruited death squads try to force the Iraqis to submit. The massacre strategy will fail because the only way it can ever work is if the Americans are willing to kill every living thing in the country. Anything less than that and it only cheeses people off.
If this theory is correct - and colonial wars do tend to follow this pattern, then the final stage will be either a withdrawal after handing over power to whatever local puppet is willing to take the reins, or a mad dash for the helicopters as everyone piles in against the occupiers.
02 June 2006
Mexican presidential elections
The Exile has been having some interesting chats with senior Mexican police officers and military men. He likes drinking in bars does the Exile.
The presidential elections are due on the 2nd July. The security services are afraid that the leftist candidate of the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) will lose the damned election to the pro-business, Catholic, Felipe Calderon, the main rightwing challenger.
The problem is that AMLO is liable to sweep up almost everything in Mexico City where almost a quarter of the voters actually live. However, he is running behind in the polls because voters in the 31 states that make up the Mexican federation are leaning towards Calderon.
The fear is the Mexico City will explode if AMLO loses the election. The police are on standby and the army will be called in if they cannot handle the situation. A rumour is going the rounds that the Presidential Guard, and the Estado Mayor - the president's personal Pretorian Guard - will be sent into action if the army proves unwilling to act.
It is not that anyone is afraid of fraud at the ballot box - those days are pretty much over. It is that an awful lot of people are looking forward to getting their paws on an awful lot of federal loot if and when AMLO becomes President of Mexico. That will not happen if he loses and some other gang becomes entitled to pillage anything that isn't red hot or nailed down.
This is the way that life is in the Third World: elections are less about ideology and more about individuals getting their hands on the levers of power so that they can enrich themselves and hand out some jobs to their family and friends. The PRD have the support of tens of thousands of people in Mexico City and the leaders might turn them loose if the elections go the other way.
It could be an interesting summer.
01 June 2006
More conflict in Afghanistan: is America trapped?
It looks as if the Americans are now fighting a war on two fronts. Afghanistan, which was very much the secondary theatre, has suddenly come to the fore and events there are starting to resemble Iraq towards the end of 2003.
If Monday's rioting is anything to go by, the Afghans are starting to get cheesed off with the Americans. As Taliban attacks on the occupation forces increase, the USA will be lucky if it can withdraw the 4,000 or so troops that it planned to do by next year.
There may very well be several reasons why the Afghans are so cheesed off, but the end result of a higher level of violence in both Iraq and Afghanistan means that America's plans to take on Iran seem to have been put on hold.
If the Afghans can raise their run rate, and inflict the same amount of casualties that the Americans are suffering in Iraq, then that might just be the straw that breaks the camel's back.