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07 December 2006
America could face guerrilla war at home
A few days ago William S. Lind posted essay 195 in his On War series. He argued that the war against Iraq could lead to civil war at home. His theme was that ex-soldiers once back home and faced with a choice between a MacJob and no job at all will "will take what they learned in Iraq back to the inner cities, to the ethnic groups, gangs, and other alternate loyalties they left when they joined the service. There, they will put their new knowledge to work, in wars with each other and wars against the American state". Bang on cue the FBI has reported that criminal gangs are "prevalent" in the U.S. military.

This is something that this blog has discussed ever since its first month: how primary loyalties are making a comeback as states start to collapse. The point that Lind goes on to make is that defeat pulls a state apart at all levels:
We saw this phenomenon in the effect the defeat in Afghanistan had on the Soviet Union. Just as that defeat led to the disintegration of the USSR, so defeat in the current Afghan war will bring the disintegration of NATO. We are seeing 4GW pull Israel apart today, to the point where a leaden blanket of Kulturpessimismus now oppresses that country.
We will see the same thing here, powerfully I think, as a result of our defeat in Iraq. It will manifest itself in many ways, and one of those ways will be the progression of inner-city and gang crime into something close to warfare, including war against the state.
Thus the defeat encourages the growth of primary loyalties and, in the case of the USA, that growth is going to be spurred by the lethal skills that American soldiers have picked up from their Iraqi foes. It does not need all that much training or industrial infrastructure to build a road-side bomb - as the Iraqis prove on a daily basis.

When will the first such bomb blow apart an American police car? Only time will tell.
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