09 October 2006
America considers her Iraqi options: coup or partition?
As America's death toll in Iraq continues to climb, more than a few warmongers are now looking for a way out of the mess.
The American backed puppet regime seems to have been put on notice that if it doesn't start sending its troops into battle against the Iraqi nationalists, then Washington might pull the plug. Since this is exactly what Iraqi patriots are after, this threat alone should be taken with a pinch of salt. What could happen after the plug has been pulled?
The Americans seem to be considering two options. The first is to split Iraq into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish states, with a weak federal government that would only be responsible for foreign affairs, defence and the distribution of oil revenues.
The problem with this is that it relies on the Shia and Kurds agreeing to give the Sunni a cut of those oil revenues. The chances of that happening seems to this writer to be pretty remote, especially when one consideres the population transfers that are going to have to take place. For instance, about two million Shias live in Baghdad, a city that would form the hub of the putative Sunni state.
OK, so following the horrendous sectarian war to sort out who is allowed to live where, we are then expected to believe that all parties will sit down and agree to divide up the oil monies? That idea doesn't seem much of a goer.
Even less of a goer is the notion that the Americans could sponsor a coup in Iraq and then rule via a military strongman. The problem here is that such is the strength of the Iraqi guerrillas and Shia militias, and such is the weakness of the puppet army, that there is not evidence to suggest that any general could be found who has the capacity to take control of the country.
Even if one could be found, and even if he was such a brilliant leader of men that he could actually take control, where is the proof that he will then rule in America's interests? A more likley outcome would be for him to do a Saddam Hussein, tell the Americans to take their hooks, and then govern as he pleases.
It says a lot about the state of America's adventure in Iraq that these ideas are being seriously put forward.