11 August 2006
The lack of a future for Israel.
Most historians, if they are honest, would probably admit that the long term future of Israel is nil. A Creole state can only survive if it can either exterminate or swamp the native population. Think of the USA for the former and New Zealand for the latter. If this does not happen, then like British Rhodesia or French Algeria, eventually the natives kick out the Creoles and that is that. In the case of Israel, the repsective Arab and Creole birthrates mean that sooner or later the Arabs will be able to challenge Creole dominance within the pre-1967 Israeli borders. If the Creoles cannot reply with genocide, they they are doomed.
However, the war in Lebanon may mean that Arabia does not have to wait until the Palestinians roughly match the Israelis in population before a showdown can occur. This is because Hezbollah now looks likely to win its war against Israel.
On the moral and political fronts, this victory has been assured for some time, but what we are talking about here is victory on the battlefield: that when the dust clears the Israelis will have been forced to withdraw and the Hezbollah battle flag, battered and stained though it will be, will be the only flag to wave over Southern Lebanon.
If this happens, then two other things are likely to follow. The first is that it will be obvious the the Creoles that the policy of deterence no longer works. Israel's strategy has always been to terrorise the Arabs into submission - hence the destruction of houses and the torture of Paletinian civilians. When that no longer works we can expect top see quite a few Westeners leaving Israel for pastures new. This will tip the moral factor over to the Arabs.
Secondly, we are likely to see revolutions breaking our in the Arab world as the corrupt old leaderships are swept aside. New governments will emerge that will probably copy the Hezbollah tactic of having an army that aims to fight a foreign enemy, rather that maintaining a corrupt oligarchy in power back home.
If that happens then Israel is doomed rather sooner than anyone imagined. As Hezbollah has shown, if you are prepared to take the hits and see the infrastucture destroyed, then you can break a modern army just by wearing it down. If Egypt and Jordan could do that from the outside, and the Palestinians did it from within, then the final surrender would not be long delayed.
We do live in interesting times, don't we?