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11 August 2006
The lack of a future for Israel.
Most historians, if they are honest, would probably admit that the long term future of Israel is nil. A Creole state can only survive if it can either exterminate or swamp the native population. Think of the USA for the former and New Zealand for the latter. If this does not happen, then like British Rhodesia or French Algeria, eventually the natives kick out the Creoles and that is that. In the case of Israel, the repsective Arab and Creole birthrates mean that sooner or later the Arabs will be able to challenge Creole dominance within the pre-1967 Israeli borders. If the Creoles cannot reply with genocide, they they are doomed.

However, the war in Lebanon may mean that Arabia does not have to wait until the Palestinians roughly match the Israelis in population before a showdown can occur. This is because Hezbollah now looks likely to win its war against Israel.

On the moral and political fronts, this victory has been assured for some time, but what we are talking about here is victory on the battlefield: that when the dust clears the Israelis will have been forced to withdraw and the Hezbollah battle flag, battered and stained though it will be, will be the only flag to wave over Southern Lebanon.

If this happens, then two other things are likely to follow. The first is that it will be obvious the the Creoles that the policy of deterence no longer works. Israel's strategy has always been to terrorise the Arabs into submission - hence the destruction of houses and the torture of Paletinian civilians. When that no longer works we can expect top see quite a few Westeners leaving Israel for pastures new. This will tip the moral factor over to the Arabs.

Secondly, we are likely to see revolutions breaking our in the Arab world as the corrupt old leaderships are swept aside. New governments will emerge that will probably copy the Hezbollah tactic of having an army that aims to fight a foreign enemy, rather that maintaining a corrupt oligarchy in power back home.

If that happens then Israel is doomed rather sooner than anyone imagined. As Hezbollah has shown, if you are prepared to take the hits and see the infrastucture destroyed, then you can break a modern army just by wearing it down. If Egypt and Jordan could do that from the outside, and the Palestinians did it from within, then the final surrender would not be long delayed.

We do live in interesting times, don't we?
1 Comments:

That's always been my understanding. (Even Richard Nixon pissed off the zionists by very publicly writing them off in the long-term, as a 'crusader state'.)

For me, the issue has never been what the palestinians could do themselves: they don't have the "depth" to fight the zionists -- who themselves (fearfully) don't have the "depth" to fend off the entire arab nation forever. Even their nukes won't help in the end -- thus all the phony imperialist thuggery over Iran (or Pakistan) and their supposedly irresponsible nuclear ambitions. As if the imperialists are not the main threat to humanity and the planet.

The issue has always been: when can the arab masses overthrow their brownnosing elites and finally do the job? Obviously it has to require some unifying crisis... And maybe this is it.

The palestinians, in order to really, really hurt the zionists Big Time, would require both that the masses of Egypt (Misr) and Jordan, at the very least, were willing -- and now able -- to fight the zionists to permanently open -- under intense bombardment, obviously -- both the Rafah crossing into Ghaza, and the jordanian border with the Jordan Valley. Otherwise, the palestinians are surrounded by the zionists and their firepower.

And for this reason, the toady régimes of Sadat/Mubarak & the "Kings" -- i.e. dictators -- Hussein/Abdullah -- were easily cajoled (not hard to do with bootlicking toady régimes) into signing peace deals with the zionists -- against the wishes of almost their entire populations -- thus putting the palestinians in the bind they're in today (Arafat did most of the rest, the asshole). Not to forget that these dictatorships are always being portrayed in the bourgeois mass-propaganda media as democracies. What Hizbullah and Lebanon demonstrate to the arab masses is that the time has come to seriously consider such possibilities.

Someday soon, the zionist "Apartheid Wall" in the West Bank, as well as their Gulag Ghetto which is Ghaza will be the albatross around their necks that the Berlin Wall was to stalinism. It's simply amazed me the hubris which the imperialists have shown, thinking that their actions are somehow superior to past foibles of other fascistic elites. They are soon to find out otherwise.

The only way out of this dilemma, for all sides, is the overthrow of the zionist elite in Israel and its replacement with a workers' socialist régime which accepts becoming part of a one-state solution as part of a united Palestine, with all palestinians who wish to, returning to pretty much what they had stolen from them. And this socialist Palestine can only be viable as part of a wider, federated arab socialist republic which has driven all imperialist forces out of its sphere.

It can be done -- and it will be done: nuclear war or otherwise.
And we shall help them.

12 August 2006 at 00:32  

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