01 April 2006
War against Iran to begin this month, says American academic
I pray that he is wrong, but Professor Jorge Hirsch of the University of California at San Diego has predicted war between his country and Iran, starting this month.
His argument is fairly complicated, but the gist of it is that the Americans will not be able to use the threat of nuclear weapons as their pretext because the IAEA has found no evidence whatsoever that Iran is even close to developing a nuclear bomb. Prof. Hirsch aruges that biological weapons will be the excuse, probably with an American claim that Iran has found some way to mutate the bird flu so that it can be carried by wild birds and then passed from to humans. The advantage of this is that birds begin to migrate in the spring, so the Americans could use this fact as a reason to attack Iran now - that is before the migration begins.
I do not know if any of this will come to pass. I still hold to the view that an attack on Iran when Iraq is still unconquered and, seemingly, unconquerable would be an act of lunacy.