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13 February 2006
Is Iran the next target?
During my time in London last month I got gloriously smashed with an old friend that I had not seen for over a decade. He now works for the security services and had a few things to say about America's sabre rattling towards Iraq.

Basically, to try and destroy all the facilities that Iran has spread out around the country would take the USA about a week of almost constant air raids. Even then it is debatable just how much would be destroyed. Given that there is still no real evidence that Iran is building anything nasty, such attacks would probably cause havoc within those few countries that still have a good word to say about the USA. Furthermore, given that the American army of occupation in Iraq is now spread out in neat little bite sized chunks, any Iranian reply to an American aggression could lead to its swift destruction. This would probably come about due to a combination of Shia guerrilla attacks within Iraq, aided by Iranian armoured divisions flooding in from outside.

For all these reasons my spooky friend does not believe that any attack on Iran is likely.

I am not convinced, largely because I think that we are dealing with a regime in Washington that is as aggressive as that of pre-war Germany. It is possible that hubris will lead them on until finally the rest of the world comes together to see them destroyed. Part of me wants that to happen in the sands of Iran and Iraq. Then the other, nicer bit kicks in when I think about all the Iranians and Iraqis who will have to die to bring it about.

Tend to agree with your analysis here. Lots of anti-war people argue, in a sense correctly, that the US would be mad to attack Iran given Tehran's influence over Iraqi militias such as the Badr Brigades.

But imperialists aren't always calm, calculating and rational. When cornered they lash out like rats – cf the Vietnam war spilling over into Cambodia. So an attack on Iran is a very real possibility.

Interesting Sunday Telegraph story on this last weekend, btw. Also read Professor Paul Rogers' report on the likely 10,000 death toll resulting from a "precision" targeting of Iran.

14 February 2006 at 16:13  

It could be done. We're a bit short of troops and the only European troops worth squat are still you Brits.

But we could still pull together a five (5) division raid. The Persians would be more of a PITA than the Iraqi. But we wouldn't have to occupy the place. Which would be a blessing.

Just tear the hell out of the nuclear facilities and go back across the Iraqi border. It's doable.

If Slobogeorge Bushovich hadn't squandered most of the money and the Reserves and the Guard, this wouldn't be as much of a problem op. But we can't help electing idiots apparently. You Brits seem to do the same. Sign of the times I'd think.

gbm, Pittsburgh, PA USA

14 March 2006 at 04:08  

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