13 February 2006
Is Iran the next target?
During my time in London last month I got gloriously smashed with an old friend that I had not seen for over a decade. He now works for the security services and had a few things to say about America's sabre rattling towards Iraq.
Basically, to try and destroy all the facilities that Iran has spread out around the country would take the USA about a week of almost constant air raids. Even then it is debatable just how much would be destroyed. Given that there is still no real evidence that Iran is building anything nasty, such attacks would probably cause havoc within those few countries that still have a good word to say about the USA. Furthermore, given that the American army of occupation in Iraq is now spread out in neat little bite sized chunks, any Iranian reply to an American aggression could lead to its swift destruction. This would probably come about due to a combination of Shia guerrilla attacks within Iraq, aided by Iranian armoured divisions flooding in from outside.
For all these reasons my spooky friend does not believe that any attack on Iran is likely.
I am not convinced, largely because I think that we are dealing with a regime in Washington that is as aggressive as that of pre-war Germany. It is possible that hubris will lead them on until finally the rest of the world comes together to see them destroyed. Part of me wants that to happen in the sands of Iran and Iraq. Then the other, nicer bit kicks in when I think about all the Iranians and Iraqis who will have to die to bring it about.