12 December 2005
Guerrillas urge Iraqis to vote on Thursday
Warmongers will be disapointed to learn that Iraq's nationalist guerrillas have urged people to vote in Thursday's election. At the same time, guerrillas in al-Anbar province has said that they will protect the polling stations aginst any attacks by al-Qaida. The Baath party will not be allowed to stand, but The Iraqi Front for National Dialogue has strong links to it. The Iraqi Accordance Front is the coalition that represents religious Sunnis.
What's going on? It could be that a deal has been cut with one of the Shia parties that will see a grand coalition formed after the elections. Given that the Sunnis are unlikely to want the aggressors to remain, the most likely Shia candidate for a putative coalition would The Sadr Movement that is headed by Moqtada al-Sadr. His guerrillas fought the Americans, so he seems the obvious choice. His party will run as part of the United Iraqi Alliance list, but that's not to say that he cannot dump his erstwhile allies once the election is over.
Another possibility is that the guerrillas will wage a two-pronged offensive after the elections are over. The guerrillas will continue culling the occupiers and their political fronts will cheer them on in parliament. Once it becomes clear that peace will only come when the guerrilla demands are met, then their political fronts will be well placed to strike deals with the Shia.
The post-election period is going to be very interesting. Unless you happen to be a 'monger that is. If you are then I suspect that you will be eating the same old shit sandwich as before.