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30 December 2005
Cull rate mounts in Afghanistan
Following on from my recent comments about guerrilla war, I see that the cull in Afghanistan reached 99 for the year 2005. Not a lot, you might think, and certainly that is what the hand-shandyists for war will tell you. A total of 259 dead and a few million dollars down the toilet is not going to force the Americans to leave that country.

However, that is not the point of guerrilla warfare. The point is to keep the war going. The Americans lost 48 troops in 2002 and the same number in 2003. By 2004 it had climbed to 52 and last year it reached 98. So the trend is upwards and the war shows no signs of ending.

The Americans have occupied Afghanistan for just over four years. Are they up for another four years? How about 40 years?

This is how such wars are won. Eventually the conventional side decides that it has had enough and it takes its troops home. The guerrillas come out of the mountains and occupy the cities. Collaborators get the chop. Victory goes the the side that lasts the longest, and that is almost always the guerrillas.

Sounds like a plan -- as long as you leave out the international situation. Add that in, and it gets more complicated.

1 January 2006 at 10:41  

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