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29 November 2005
Why the guerrillas will probably win once the Americans leave.
Juan Cole has a take on why the guerrillas should win any post-occupation conflict:
Readers and colleagues often ask me why a Shiite majority and the Kurdish Peshmergas couldn't just take care of the largely Sunni Arab guerrillas. The answer is that the Sunni Arabs were the officer corps and military intelligence, and the more experienced NCOs, and they know how to do things that the Shiites and Kurds don't know how to do. The Sunni Arabs were also the country's elite and have enormous cultural capital and managerial know-how. Sunni Arab advantages will decline over time, but they are there for this generation, and no one should underestimate the guerrilla leadership. If the Americans weren't around, all those 77 Hungarian T-72 tanks that the new Iraqi military now has would be in guerrilla hands so fast it would make your head spin.
This argument ignores the fact that some Shia groups might join the guerrilla army on the principle that backing winners is better than going down to an inglorious defeat for the Americans and their allies. If that happened, then defeat for the Americans' clients would just come all the sooner.
3 Comments:

more "prowar left"
www.workersliberty.org/

Our allies alive and kicking

Freedom is on the march in the greater middle east.

29 November 2005 at 17:44  

Fuck me with a wire brush - Dave T.!!! How they hanging mate? Hey, does your boss know that you wrote to me? I don't want to get you into any trouble, mate. So be careful and know your place when he's around, OK?

I had a look at the site. Lemme tell you a story... Near where I live - well, about 20 miles away, actually, but "near" is relative in the biggest city in the world - is the district of Coyoacan. In the district of Coyoacan is a house, and that house has a bloody big garden in front of it. In the garden is a grave - are you with me as far as we've come? Good lad! Anyway, every year until this house got taken over by the government and run as a museum, a group of blokes used to go to Coyoacan and have a few beers in a swill shop near the house. Then, when their bladders were really nice and full they used to go to the house, into the garden, up to the grave and have a nice, long piss all over it.

Did you like my little bedtime story? Now, while you are getting tucked up for the night, here's a list of countries and territories that have been liberated by the 4th International:

1. Cloud Cuckoo Land
2. Somewhere over the rainbow.
3. Er, that's it for now.

Please check back on the 1st December - my monthly gloat will go up at midnight, Mexico City time.

29 November 2005 at 21:06  

Why didn't you just steal his skull too, like some former frat boys we know stole Geronimo's? Then you could have had great fun sticking things in that sharp-edged hole in the back of the cranium...

Sheesh. Nasty and immature. I'd rather see pix of dead iraqis.

30 November 2005 at 15:22  

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